Don't believe the good economic news about Brexit: Bloomberg View

(Sept 13): With the arrival of positive manufacturing and services reports from the UK, it seems that the British economy is doing fine. There's dwindling talk of a recession caused by the vote the leave the European Union, and British politicians are wondering if a “hard Brexit” option – rapid withdrawal from Europe without a new trade agreement – might be feasible.

The answer is no. Such views rest upon bad economic reasoning and the cost of Brexit remains high, albeit mostly invisible for the time being.

Nations can pay an economic price in many ways, whether or not it takes the form of an actual recession. The term “recession” is an artifact of macroeconomists, and formally a recession is a sequence of two or more quarters with shrinking gross national product. Most of the losses from Brexit will be felt more slowly, though they probably will be worse than a mere recession.

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