(Nov 7): Donald Trump’s campaign has always understood that Florida is key to his electoral chances. At Trump’s data headquarters in San Antonio, staffers run daily simulations that weight and rank the importance of each state to building a path to 270 electoral votes. Florida is invariably on top. And within Florida, Trump’s analysts have pinpointed the area that’s most critical of all.

Miami-Dade County is the most important county in the country for Trump's chances, according to a campaign official familiar with the simulations.

Brad Parscale, Trump’s digital director, prefers the slightly broader measure of “designated market area,” but agrees Miami-Dade is “the most important DMA”—ground zero for the Trump campaign. “When I speak of importance,” Parscale said, “I am stating that we have large numbers of persuadable” voters there.

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