SINGAPORE (Mar 30): After a volatile week, the Straits Times Index (3,427, daily) ended the week 6 points higher at 3,427. There hasn’t been much change in the chart pattern, with the STI having fallen out of triangle, but holding above the 200-day moving average at 3,370. However, the STI remains below its 50- and 100-day moving averages at 3,502 and 3,464 respectively.
ADX – which was declining – has turned up. This is actually a negative signal as the DIs are negatively placed. The 21-day RSI is falling, and does not appear to be sufficiently oversold to trigger a rebound.
Quarterly momentum still remains miraculously above its equilibrium line for the second consecutive week following the price breakdown, giving traders some hope that a rebound is developing. Any rebound is unlikely to get much beyond the breakdown level of 3,491 in the near term. The move below 3,491 indicated an initial downside of 3,340, which coincides with the Feb low.
Annual momentum has definitely turned down. More alarmingly, its smoothed annual momentum is also turning down. This means that the largest gains are over for the 2016-2018 cycle, and the STI is likely to move progressively lower.
