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Brokers’ Digest: OUE REIT, AA REIT, Hongkong Land, SIAEC, E-LOG REIT, CEREIT, SingPost, CSE Global, Netlink NBN Trust

The Edge Singapore
The Edge Singapore • 22 min read
Brokers’ Digest: OUE REIT, AA REIT, Hongkong Land, SIAEC, E-LOG REIT, CEREIT, SingPost, CSE Global, Netlink NBN Trust
See what the analysts have to say about these counters this week. Photo: Bloomberg
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OUE REIT
Price target:
OCBC Investment Research ‘buy’ 34 cents

High-quality assets with balanced sector mix

In a report released on Nov 4, OCBC Investment Research (OIR) initiated coverage on OUE REIT TS0U

with a “buy” call and a target price of 34 cents.

As of Dec 31, 2023, OUE REIT’s total asset under management (AUM) was $6.3 billion. It has six properties in Singapore and one in Shanghai. Notably, 93.5% of its portfolio asset value is in Singapore.

OIR analyst Donovan Tan notes that OUE REIT has “high-quality assets with a balanced sector mix”.

OUE REIT owns four Grade A office buildings in the Central Business District (CBD), two five-star resorts, and a retail mall on Orchard Road.

See also: Brokers’ Digest: CDL, PropNex, PLife REIT, KIT, SingPost, Grand Banks Yachts, Nio, Frencken, ST Engineering, UOB

According to Tan: “the diversified portfolio, with nearly half allocated to office properties and the other half to retail and hospitality, underpins the REIT’s ability to enhance income resilience through changing market dynamics.”

While Tan notes that growth in these sectors is moderating in Singapore, he believes that OUE REIT is different due to its ownership of high-quality assets in strategic prime locations.

Tan believes that this strategic advantage enables OUE REIT to continue absorbing demand ahead of its competitors in a challenging market. This would allow OUE REIT to maintain “strong occupancy rates” alongside mild rental growth.

See also: RHB still upbeat on ST Engineering but trims target price by 2.3%

Tan notes that this is reflected by its current operational metrics, with Singapore offices achieving occupancy rates of 94.5%, Mandarin Gallery at 95.3%, and hospitality Revenue Per Available Room (RevPAR) at $296 as of 3QFY2024 ended Sept 30.

Additionally, at the start of the year, OUE REIT was rebranded from OUE Commercial REIT to reflect its focus on all three segments: office, retail and hospitality.

Tan notes that Han Khim Siew, CEO of OUE REIT, improved the REIT’s capital structure, increasing its unsecured debt from 30.9% in 2021 to 87% currently.

Through asset class diversification, a quality portfolio, and prudent leverage management, OUE REIT achieved an investment grade (IG) rating of “BBB–” from S&P Global in 2023.

In September, OUE REIT issued its annual seven-year IG green note, which was oversubscribed by 3.2 times. Tan notes that 70% of the issuance was allocated to institutional investors at an interest rate of 3.9%.

According to CEO Han, it is rare for non-government-linked companies to issue bonds beyond a five-year tenure.

“We believe these developments are significant steps towards restoring equity investors’ confidence and bridging the discount to its net asset value (NAV),” Tan adds.

For more stories about where money flows, click here for Capital Section

Tan forecasts distribution yields of 6.7% for FY2024 and 6.9% for FY2025.

Tan expects finance costs to peak in late FY2025 or 1H2025, resulting in a decrease in distribution per unit (DPU) of 5.7% in FY2024, alongside weaker contributions from Lippo Plaza.

However, Tan expects DPU to increase by around 3% to 5% in the next four years as finance cost decreases.

Tan also expects the REIT to be more operationally stable after significantly cleaning its capital structure and better-optimised asset returns.

Tan anticipates a “positive rerating” for OUE REIT as the Fed continues its rate-cutting path.

Tan derives his target price from a dividend discount model (DDM) methodology, with a cost equity assumption of 7.94% and a terminal growth rate of 1.5%. The target price represents an implied price-to-book ratio (P/B) of 0.49 times.

At current valuations, Tan states that OUE REIT is trading at a consensus forward 12-month P/B of 0.48 times, approximately 1.1 standard deviations (sd) below its 10-year historical average forward P/B of 0.61 times. — Cherlyn Yeoh

AIMS APAC REIT
Price target:
OCBC Investment Research ‘buy’ $1.50

Slight occupancy dip ‘transitory’

OCBC Investment Research (OIR) analyst Donovan Tan raised his target price for AIMS APAC REIT (AA REIT) to $1.50 from $1.46 in a report dated Nov 5. The REIT’s 1HFY2025 results ended September saw a higher distribution per unit (DPU) of 4.670 cents.

Tan has also kept his “buy” call, noting that the REIT’s DPU came in slightly above his expectations.

The REIT’s gross revenue and net property income (NPI) rose by 7.7% and 5.1% y-o-y to $93.5 million and $67.6 million, respectively, primarily driven by robust rental reversion, which accelerated this quarter to 23.9% compared to 12.8% in 1QFY2024.

He notes that a business park in Jurong recorded a 4.2% reversion, although management needs to be more cautious about the outlook for business parks in Singapore. AA REIT’s management expects high single-digit to low-teens rental reversions in the near to medium term.

However, the REIT saw another quarter of a slight dip in portfolio occupancy from 97.3% to 96.7% and higher cost of debt, Tan says. “We do not view this as the beginning of a weakness; rather, it should be transitory given the ongoing demand for industrial and logistics space,” he adds.

The REIT’s aggregate leverage increased to 33.4% from 33.1%, while the all-in cost of debt rose from 4.3% to 4.4%. The REIT has a fixed debt of $100 million at 3.6%, which is set to be refinanced by next week.

Tan believes that yields may surge further with Trump’s win and the Republicans gain control of both houses of Congress. “Nevertheless, management believes that 4.4% appears to be a peak rate for them,” he says.

Meanwhile, the REIT’s management says that both asset enhancement initiatives (AEIs) are expected to be completed earlier than anticipated, by 1QFY2024 and are projected to cost a lower $26 million.

The analyst reiterates his thesis from his initiation report on AA REIT, which is that it is strong in its capability to drive returns through organic growth and development, including its environmental, social, and governance (ESG) initiatives.

He raises his FY2025 and FY2026 DPU estimates by 1.5% and 1.3%, respectively, to account for increased contributions from AEIs and stronger rental reversions. — Nicole Lim

Hongkong Land
Price target:
Morningstar '3 star' US$3.86

New strategy to boost returns

Hongkong Land’s new strategy is positive for the long term, but near-term earnings will remain volatile, says Morningstar

Morningstar equity analyst Xavier Lee is keeping his “three-star” rating on Hongkong Land with an unchanged fair value estimate of US$3.86 ($5.12) after the group released its strategy update on Oct 29.

The analyst views Hongkong Land’s update, which will focus on ultra-premium integrated commercial assets for recurring rental income while pivoting away from the sale of development properties, as “positive” for the long term.

He also likes the group’s aim to grow its assets under management (AUM) to US$100 billion ($133 billion) by 2035 with the help of third-party capital.

“This should create a regular management fee income stream,” he writes in his Oct 30 report. “Management expects these measures to help the company increase its returns on invested capital and double its profit before interest and tax, as well as dividends, by 2035.”

However, in the short term, Lee sees Hong Kong Land’s near-term earnings as “volatile” as the company must balance exiting its development property business, selling its investment properties, and organically growing its fund and REIT management platform.

“In our view, execution is key for the company, and we note that some of Hongkong Land’s peers have had limited success in shifting toward being a real estate manager to create a recurrent fee income stream,” he says.

“On this front, we are mildly optimistic about Hongkong Land’s execution, given chief executive officer Michael Smith’s background as an investment banker who had been involved in several REIT listings and his track record at Mapletree Investment, where he deployed US$20 billion of capital between 2017 and 2021 and syndicated 90% of it into private funds and REITs,” he adds.

In its announcement, Hongkong Land indicated that Hong Kong, Shanghai and Singapore would remain its key markets. Its management will look at opportunities to develop ultra-premium commercial projects in central business districts of premium gateway cities such as Tokyo and Sydney.

“In our view, competition may be more intense outside of Hong Kong and Singapore, where land supply is less constrained,” says Lee.

He also notes that the group intends to fund its expansion through capital recycling, including unlocking US$6 billion from the winding down of its development properties business and US$4 billion from recycling selected investment properties assets.

“We think the first phase of recycling will likely focus on clearing its residential inventory in the build-to-sell business. We expect market conditions for fundraising, acquisitions, and divestment to improve from 2026, driven by lower interest rates,” Lee writes.

“This should support the group’s capital recycling plans and setting up its own fund and REIT management platform. While the company could potentially spin off its mainland China assets into a C-REIT, we would expect the listing exercise to take [a] longer time than the Hong Kong- and Singapore-listed REITs, given the lengthy regulatory approval process in China.”

At this point, Lee has kept his forecasts mostly unchanged, although the analyst has increased his dividend per share (DPS) forecast for FY2024 to 23 US cents from 22 US cents, in line with Hongkong Land’s management’s guidance. The group previously guided for mid-single-digit annual dividend growth.

Lee’s current fair value estimate represents a downside of 18.7% from Hongkong Land’s last-closed share price of US$4.75 on Nov 7; the group’s shares rose by some 11% after its announcement. As such, he believes investors should wait for a “better entry price” given the execution risk. — Felicia Tan

SIA Engineering Company
Price targets:
CGS International ‘add’ $2.65
OCBC Investment Research ‘buy’ $2.76

Well-positioned for growth

Analysts at CGS International (CGSI) and OCBC Investment Research (OIR) are both keeping their respective “add” and “buy” calls on SIA Engineering Company (SIAEC) after the company’s 1HFY2024 ended Sept 30 revenue rose by 12.1% y-o-y to $576.2 million. SIAEC’s earnings for 1HFY2025 rose by 16% y-o-y to $68.8 million.

CGSI analysts Kenneth Tan and Lim Siew Khee see SIAEC as “well positioned” to capture the elevated regional demand for maintenance, repair and operations (MRO). At the same time, they believe the company’s fundamentals are “trending in the right direction”.

The company’s 1HFY2025 earnings were in line with Tan’s and Lim’s expectations at 49% of their FY2025 forecast.

“1HFY2025 revenue growth of 12% y-o-y indicated that 2QFY2025 revenue reaccelerated despite a slow 1QFY2025, which management attributed to increased work volumes and timing of certain project milestones,” write Tan and Lim in their Nov 6 report.

SIAEC’s operating profit margin in the first half also improved y-o-y by 0.6 percentage points (ppts). However, the analysts note that elevated labour and material costs continued to apply pressure.

Associate profits recorded healthy growth of 17% y-o-y on higher engine work volumes at key engine associates.

As such, an interim dividend per share (DPS) of 2.0 cents was proposed.

In terms of operational numbers, flights handled by line maintenance in 1HFY2025 rose 9% y-o-y, standing at around 99% of 1HFY2020 pre-Covid-19 pandemic levels, thanks to continued traffic recovery at Changi Airport.

Meanwhile, the number of checks performed by base maintenance declined 12% y-o-y, but the work scope per check rose due to increased utilisation of older aircraft and some cabin refurbishment works.

Tan and Lim write: “We understand that SIAEC is currently in the process of renegotiating its maintenance, repair and operations (MRO) contract rates with parent Singapore Airlines C6L

, and continues to focus on expanding longer-term growth avenues such as Subang base maintenance hangars, line maintenance services in Cambodia and collaboration with Air India.”

Both SIAEC’s engine associates saw robust work volume recovery in the 1HFY2025.

The analysts write: “Eagle Services Asia (ESA) benefitted from a ramp-up in geared turbofan (GTF) engine recalls and is still ramping up utilisation given recent facility expansion.”

On SIAEC’s other associate, Singapore Aero Engine Services (SAESL), the company saw strong profit growth of around 36% y-o-y, driven by higher rates charged and increased output.

“SAESL is still undergoing expansion works to boost capacity by around 40%, set to conclude by FY2026/FY2027. Associate profits remain a key earnings driver for SIAEC; we estimate them to account for around 80% of SIAEC’s FY2025 to FY2027 net profit,” write Tan and Lim.

Meanwhile, SIAEC’s 1HFY2025 operating profit was slightly lower than OIR’s initial full-year forecast at 45.6%. 1HFY2025 revenue stood at 46.9% of the brokerage’s full-year estimate.

“We also note that SIAEC has incurred start-up and development costs and is expected to continue to do so over the next two to three years as it continues to invest in capacity expansion and productivity, though these figures have not been separately disclosed,” says OIR analyst Ada Lim in her Nov 6 report.

She notes that the company’s group revenue and expenditure rose 12.1% and 11.5% y-o-y to $576.2 million and $572.8 million, respectively, translating to a $3.3 million y-o-y increase in operating profit to $3.4 million.

In the same period, SIAEC’s share of earnings of associates/joint ventures (SoAJV) grew 17.2% y-o-y to $58.6 million.

Lim adds: “SIAEC performed 347 and 33 light and heavy checks, respectively, at its Singapore base in 1HFY2025; this was slightly lower y-o-y as there were more checks for older generation aircraft with heavier work content that resulted in longer hangar time, as well as cabin refurbishments.”

CGSI has an unchanged target price of $2.65, while OIR has raised its fair value of $2.76 from $2.69. — Douglas Toh

ESR LOGOS REIT
Price target:
CGS International ‘add’ 36 cents

Resilient portfolio well poised for longer-term gains

CGS International (CGSI) analysts Lock Mun Yee and Natalie Ong have maintained their “add” call on ESR-LOGOS REIT J91U

(E-LOG), with an unchanged target price of 36 cents, even though the REIT’s 9MFY2024 ended Sept 30 numbers stood below their expectations.

In its interim business update, E-LOG reported a 6.3% and 6.5% y-o-y decline in 9MFY2024 gross revenue and net property income (NPI) to $272.5 million and $192.7 million, respectively, due to the divestment of non-core assets.

The revenue and NPI were below Lock and Ong’s expectations at 71% of their FY2024 estimates. The analysts predict E-LOG to report revenue of $382.5 million and NPI of $270.6 million in FY2024.

On a same-store basis, gross revenue and NPI would have increased 1.9% and 1.2% y-o-y, respectively, due to positive rental reversions.

The analysts are optimistic about E-LOG’s prospects as they believe the REIT’s portfolio rejuvenation strategy should result in more resilience to its income and net asset value (NAV) in the long run. The strategy should also position the REIT to tap into inorganic growth opportunities.

In their Oct 31 report, the analysts also note E-LOG’s “robust” portfolio rental reversions of 11% for the 9MFY2024 and “healthy” gearing of 36% at the end of 3QFY2024.

They add that the REIT’s new 6% perpetual securities, totalling $174.5 million issued in August 2024 to replace its existing 6.632% perpetual securities and finance its proposed acquisitions, should result in some interest cost savings.

“For FY2025, management guided that it expects FY2025 revenue and NPI to be lifted by the contributions from the proposed acquisitions that were announced previously, positive rental reversions, as well as a service charge increment to offset cost increases from service contracts in FY2025,” they write. — Cherlyn Yeoh

Cromwell European REIT
Price targets:
OCBC Invest Research ‘buy’ EUR1.89
Phillip Securities ‘buy’ EUR1.95

New debt facility gives bargaining power

Analysts at OCBC Investment Research (OIR) and PhillipCapital Securities have kept their “buy” on Cromwell European REIT (CEREIT) with a higher fair value estimate and target price of EUR1.89 ($2.70) and EUR1.95, respectively, following its 3QFY2024 ended September results.

In his Nov 5 report, OIR analyst Donavan Tan notes that the REIT secured a new EUR340 million debt facility for its EUR450 million bond, which expires in November 2025. This will provide CEREIT with some bargaining power when pricing a new bond to refinance this because it offers liquidity for the refinancing.

“We believe this is a key strategy, especially since the existing bond was priced at a very low rate of 2.1%. The cost of refinancing this bond will significantly impact its distributions, serving as a ‘final reset’ before we see stability in distribution growth, with the exception of any black swan events,” says Tan.

Darren Chan of Phillip Securities points out that CEREIT’s overall cost of debt has improved slightly q-o-q to 3.16%, with 87.6% of debt hedged to a fixed rate. Conversely, gearing rose 0.7% points q-o-q to 41% due to the drawdown of the revolving loan facility to fund capital expenditure.

CEREIT remains focused on maintaining high portfolio occupancy and rental income growth, managing the November 2025 bond maturity by issuing long-term debt at optimal pricing and completing the remaining EUR70 million in non-strategic divestments to increase its portfolio weighting in the logistics/light industrial sector, which currently stands at 54%.

Chan expects CEREIT’s all-in debt cost to remain at 3.2% in FY2024 and rise to 4% in FY2025 following the bond refinancing. He also highlights Fitch Ratings’ recent revision of the trust’s outlook from “stable” to “positive” while reaffirming its BBB– rating. He says an upgrade to BBB could result in margin savings of 20–30 basis points.

“We expect FY2024 year-end portfolio valuation to remain stable. CEREIT’s pivot towards a 60% target asset class weight in light industrial/logistics aims to capitalise on positive structural trends, such as increased e-commerce penetration and the nearshoring of supply chains.

“Catalysts include further European Central Bank rate cuts to secure a low coupon rate for the new bond issuance,” says Chan.

With a healthy gearing ratio below 40% and a significant discount to net asset value due to the tough economic conditions in Europe, Tan believes CEREIT presents an attractive opportunity for S-REIT investors seeking high-quality returns and exposure to the European market. — Khairani Afifi Noordin

Singapore Post
Price targets:
CGS International ‘add’ 58 cents
OCBC Investment Research ‘hold’ 58 cents
UOB Kay Hian ‘buy’ 61 cents

Earnings growth fell short; eyes on impending review in Australia

Singapore Post’s 1HFY2025 earnings nearly doubled but fell short of some analysts’ expectations. Pending details of a long-planned “strategic review” of its Australia-based businesses, analysts from OCBC Investment Research and UOB Kay Hian have maintained their respective calls and target prices for now.

In 1HFY2025 ended Sept 30, SingPost reported a core patmi of $25.2 million, up 87.6% y-o-y. However, this figure was short of what UOB Kay Hian analyst Llelleythan Tan Yi Rong was projecting due to higher-than-expected interest costs.

The higher financing costs also offset operational improvements enjoyed by SingPost in its domestic operations due to higher postage rates allowed by the government.

The consolidation of recently acquired businesses also lifted its Australian logistics subsidiaries. However, Tan observes some weaknesses in its third-party logistics segment.

With higher interest cost assumptions, Tan has cut his FY2025 earnings estimate by 13% and FY2027’s by 15%. However, citing his sum-of-the-parts valuation methodology, Tan points out that SingPost, at current levels, remains “severely” undervalued.

For one, its property segment alone is valued at $844 million, versus SingPost’s current market value of around $1.18 billion.

Tan values SingPost’s logistics and postal segments at $861.3 million and $271.2 million, respectively. As such, Tan, in his Nov 7 note, is keeping his “buy” call and 61 cents target price.  

In her Nov 6 note, OCBC Investment Research’s Ada Lim points out that SingPost’s share price has rallied throughout October following reports from Australia that there are interested buyers for its assets Down Under.

However, no deals have been firmed up thus far, and the company’s “strategic review” of its Australian businesses, announced earlier this year, is still ongoing.

“An update on the outcome is expected by the end of the calendar year, and proceeds from any divestments may potentially be used to pare down Australian dollar debt,” says Lim, who has kept her ‘hold’ call and 58 cents fair value on the counter.

Ong Khang Chuen of CGS International anticipates two key decisions being made by the end of the current FY2025 ending March 2025.

First, SingPost’s freight forwarding business will be sold. Next, its Australian assets will be assessed for sale options.

He estimates the combined value of both businesses to be around $1.1 billion, using an 8 times 2025 EV/Ebitda multiple.

In his Nov 6 note, Ong reiterates his “add” call on the stock, citing how $2.5 billion worth of assets can be unlocked in the next three years as the company embarks on its strategic transformation.

However, he has trimmed his target price to 58 cents from 60 cents, citing lower margin assumptions.

For Ong, potential re-rating catalysts include the successful execution of value-unlocking plans.

On the other hand, downside risks include prolonged weakness in its international business volumes and the impact of the forex translation from a weaker Australian dollar and a weaker renminbi versus the Singdollar, the reporting currency. — The Edge Singapore

CSE Global
Price target:
Maybank Securities “buy’ 60 cents

Pick-up in order wins

Maybank Securities analyst Jarick Seet is keeping his “buy” call and target price of 60 cents unchanged on CSE Global 544

following the company’s 9MFY2024 ended Sept 30 update.

In 9MFY2024, CSE Global’s new orders dipped 18% y-o-y to $565.4 million, which Seet notes is slightly disappointing due to large one-off orders secured last year.

On a more positive note, revenue in the 9MFY2024 grew 20.2% y-o-y to $642.8 million, beating Seet’s forecast by 5%.

Seet writes in his Nov 4 report: “With higher revenue and operating leverage, we expect profitability and net margins to increase, excluding the one-off US$8 million ($10.6 million) settlement. [CSE Global] has a healthy order book of $633.6 million as at end 9MFY2024, which is almost flat y-o-y despite lower orders obtained during 3QFY2024.”

He adds: “We expect order wins to pick up in 4QFY2024 and FY2025 and remain positive on CSE Global due to its positive outlook and attractive yield of 6.4%.”

In 3QFY2024, CSE Global won $186.7 million in new orders, 37.7% lower y-o-y.

“However, we understand it’s mainly due to delay in potential order wins worth $60 to $80 million that should likely be won in 4QFY2024 instead,” writes Seet.

While the analyst expects a pick-up in order wins in the coming quarter, he notes that order wins could still be lower y-o-y due to 2HFY2023’s one-off orders.

He writes: “We also expect order wins to likely be more evenly distributed going forward.”

Overall, Seet remains bullish on the electrification landscape and opportunities and CSE Global’s ability to get the company back on track. The analyst expects further contract wins in the electrification space in the near term and potential share buybacks to demonstrate CSE Global’s confidence. “Lastly, we expect core net margins to improve with higher operating leverage,” he adds.

Upside swing factors, he noted, include a strong net profit after tax (NPAT) growth of 250% in FY2023 and 30% y-o-y in FY2024, the stock trading at a significant discount compared to peers and an attractive dividend yield of 6%.

Other swing factors include potential mergers and acquisitions (M&A) to boost profitability, CSE Global offering upside to the US oil and gas upcycle, and strong potential growth in US-based data centres.

Conversely, downsides include potential execution errors causing cost overruns, a recession that could cause business and orders to slow down, and foreign exchange (forex) fluctuations that could impact profitability as the company operates in many countries. — Douglas Toh

Netlink NBN Trust
Price targets:
Citi Research ‘buy’ $1.03
Maybank Securities ‘buy’ 97 cents

Higher-than-expected distribution

The analysts at Maybank Securities and Citi Research are both keeping their “buy” calls on NetLink NBN Trust following the group’s 1HFY2025 ended September results.

While Maybank Securities analyst Hussaini Saifee has kept his target price of 97 cents unchanged, Citi Research’s Luis Hilado and Arthur Pineda have raised their target price of $1.03 from $1.00.

Netlink’s 2QFY2025 earnings fell 11% y-o-y, partly due to a 4% y-o-y drop in ebitda, while revenue grew 3% y-o-y. 1HFY2025 earnings fell 8% y-o-y and 4% q-o-q, which Saifee notes stems partially from higher taxes and a slight ebitda softness following an absence of a one-off gain from a disposal of assets recorded in 1HFY2024.

He continues: “1HFY2024 revenue was stable despite lower regulatory pricing from April. Despite reported earnings decline in 1HFY2025, the company declared a 1% increase in dividend of 2.68 cents, translating to an attractive annual yield of 6%.”

Meanwhile, the group posted a stable regulated asset base (RAB) revenue y-o-y despite a reduction in its regulated pricing from April.

Netlink’s residential connections declined by 4,000 in 2QFY2025, but this was partially due to a reversal from 17,000 in 1QFY2025, which Safee attributes to a promotion launched by telcos’ of 10 gigabytes per second (Gbps) fibre, as well as WiFi router offerings.

Non-residential connections declined by 200, largely due to churn between requesting licensees (RLs) with delayed terminations and RL consolidation.

“However, non-building address point (NBAP) connections surprisingly made a decent comeback, posting 2% q-o-q growth. Segment connections maintained its strong momentum, up 4% q-o-q. NBAP and segment connection growth are supported by smart nation and cloud-based services-linked deployments,” writes Saifee.

“Netlink’s revenue and cash flows are resilient and well supported by a stable business model. We see Netlink as a bigger beneficiary as and when the interest rate cycle turns,” continues Saifee.

He adds that the stock has a 71% negative correlation to the 10-year US bond yield while its 6% dividend yield remains highly visible and stable.

He noted upside factors include stronger-than-expected demand, which could enable NetLink to increase its regulated capital expenditure (capex); accelerating office decentralisation from the central business district (CBD) area; and a higher-than-expected residential household broadband penetration rate.

Conversely, downside factors include reduced regulated returns for the group’s next review period, impacting long-term fair value, pricing competition in the non-residential segment, and a rising interest rate cycle.

Meanwhile, Citi’s Hilado and Pineda write: “We note positively that distribution per share (DPS) of 2.68 cents is likely a beat of consensus at 53% (51% of Citi) as historically 1HFY2025 DPS is exactly half of the full year.”

The analysts add that their higher targets come from lower 10-year Singapore rates.

“Trading above one standard deviation (s.d.) over its long-term dividend yield mean of 5.7%, we remain a ‘buy’ on the stock where a higher for longer rate outlook would be the key risk to performance,” write Hilado and Pineda. — Douglas Toh

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