CGS International (CGSI) analysts Lock Mun Yee, Lim Siew Khee and Chua Wei Ren have upgraded their long-term target for the MSCI Singapore Index to 322 points over the six-month period as the index is currently closing in on their long-term target of 316.50 points. This comes earlier than expected after the index stood above the consolidative range of 307.95 to 312.20 points, which they note is “seen as a bullish continuation” pattern.
“The index’s uptrend has stayed intact for the past six months, since rebounding from its December 2023 low of 268.72 points, and is likely to maintain its upward trajectory for the next three to six months, in our view,” the analysts write in their Singapore strategy report dated June 28.
However, should a correction happen in July, the major support to watch for a rebound is at 312.20 points and 305 points, they add.
The analysts have also kept their MSCI Singapore Free Index (SIMSCI) target of 313.35 points, which is based on 14 times its FY2024 P/E.
The SIMSCI closed at 314.78 points, up 5.03 points or 1.6% m-o-m in June, as Singapore’s non-domestic oil exports (NODX) for the month of May fell by 0.1% y-o-y, marking an improvement from April’s 9.3% y-o-y decline.
In the same month, Singapore’s headline consumer price index (CPI) rose to 3.1% in May, up 4 percentage points from April, driven by higher private transport costs. Core inflation remained stable at 3.1% y-o-y in May, as higher services inflation was offset by lower inflation in electricity and gas, as well as retail and other goods.
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New home sales fell by 27% m-o-m in May and 79% y-o-y amid a dearth of new launches.
Data from the Singapore Real Estate Exchange (SRX) saw May condominium resale prices inching up 0.4% m-o-m and 4.2% y-o-y, although volume fell by 5.5% m-o-m.
Outperformers and underperformers
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In June, communications and retail were the sectors that outperformed while industrials, utilities and consumer services underperformed.
The top gainers in the SIMSCI were Singapore Telecommunications Z74 (Singtel) due to its investment in ST Telemedia Global Data Centres (STT GDC), Singapore Technologies Engineering (ST Engineering) for its ammunition orders and data centre and Sea Limited.
Meanwhile, the top losers were Seatrium, City Developments and Sembcorp Industries U96 . Seatrium’s share price decline was attributed to the fresh investigationsinto Operation Car Wash by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) and the Commercial Affairs Department (CAD).
In the mid-large-cap space, the best performers were Frencken (due to the semiconductor upcycle), Singtel and Yangzijiang Shipbuilding (for order wins), while Seatrium, Singapore Post S08 (SingPost) and Thai Beverage Y92 (ThaiBev) were underperformers. SingPost’s share price decline was due to its substantial shareholder, Alibaba, cutting its stake via a married deal. Alibaba sold 72.5 million shares for $33.3 million or about 46 cents per share according to a June 7 filing.
“In the preceding four weeks, institutional investors were net sellers, with inflows only going into the financials, telcos and utilities sectors, while [the] largest outflows came from developers, REITs and industrials. Over the same period, retail investors were net buyers, with inflows into industrials, REITs and financials, and outflows coming from telcos, consumer cyclicals and technology,” the team notes.
As at 3.27 pm, the STI was trading 23.71 points higher or 0.71% up at 3,362.28 points.
