The Straits Times Index ended at 3,343 on June 27, the highest end-day close this year. However, it eased to end the week of June 24-28 at 3,332, off the high of the week, but still up 24 points week-on-week. A breakout above 3,350 may continue to stay elusive in the near term.
Directional movement indicators have flattened, with ADX hovering around 11. This is a low level, and indicative of a ranging market rather than a trending market. A mild pick-up in volume was evident on the white candle days. Quarterly momentum has resumed an upmove following a sideways range. Short term RSI has rebounded off neutral levels.
Support remains at 3,300 (give or take). The 50-day moving average, which has acted as a support line, is currently at 3,299, and rising at around 2.6 points a day. All in, the STI should be able to be well-supported by its rising moving averages. If 3,300 continues to hold, the eventual upside of 3,450 remains valid.
Although the 10-year US Treasury Yield rebounded to 4.3%, it failed to test the confluence of the 100- and 200-day moving averages at 4.34. The two moving averages appear poised for a negative cross in the event that the 10-year US Treasury Yield stays at 4.3%. Support/ breakdown stays at 4.2%.
All eyes are likely to be on inflation figures and the health of the economy. May construction spending, June ISM manufacturing and services surveys, job openings and labour turnover survey (JOLTS) jobs openings for May, May factory orders, ADP employment change for June, May trade balance, and Initial jobless claims for week ending 29 Jun will all be released in the week of July 1-5 despite July 4 being Independence Day.
The major US banks sailed through their stress tests, a positive, and the major banks start reporting results from July 12 onwards. The US corporate earnings reporting season starts with 195 US companies reporting this week in week of July 1-5 but only one of them is from the S&P 500 index.
See also: STI steadies despite overbought US markets and rising US risk-free rates
