During the week, the Straits Times Index fell by 40 points week-on-week to close at 3,176 on April 19. During the week, the STI touched a low of 3,144 establishing the area around 3,150 as a support that has been tested twice. Despite the somewhat steeper decline than the two points lost in the previous week, the STI may turn out to be less nervous in the weeks ahead.
The local banks, which are the largest stocks by market capitalisation in the STI and the MSCI Singapore Free Index, remain resilient. DBS Group Holdings, the largest company on the SGX retested a 2-year high as the Federal Reserve signalled that the Fed Funds Rate could stay higher for longer.
Importantly, so long as yields on assets remain at current levels, policy rates do not rise, and funding costs remain at current levels, banks should continue to reap benefits, especially if credit costs stay benign. Since banks are the most important component stocks, the STI should also remain resilient, despite the negative impact on S-REITs and developers.
Since short and medium term indicators have filliped, the directional indicators are neutral, and ADX is falling, the downside is likely to be limited and a rebound should ensue. However resistance stays at the thrice-tested 3,250 as a firmer phase for the banks is likely to be offset by a weaker phase for developers and S-REITs.
Elsewhere, 10-year US treasury yields have moved up to 4.64% a at April 19, an indication that policy rates may stay higher for longer. The higher risk-free rates will cause US equities to remain under some pressure in the near term.
