Retail investors are cashing out from China’s exchange-traded funds, risking further market volatility if Beijing fails to boost sentiment, according to analysts.
ETFs have seen net outflows since late October, according to an analysis by Haitong Securities. ETFs have been a popular choice for local retail investors to invest in stocks, as it is a hassle-free and less expensive tool that allows them to pursue themes such as dividend stocks that dovetail with Beijing’s priorities.
The largest onshore exchange-traded funds tracking the CSI 300 Index, the ChiNext Index and the STAR 50 Index saw a combined net outflow of about 40 billion yuan ($7.43 billion) so far till Nov 25, on track for the biggest monthly sales on record.
The outflows signal investor doubts that Beijing’s stimulus will prove to be effective in lifting consumer spending.
Higher US tariffs threatened by President-elect Donald Trump have also weighed on sentiment. The MSCI China Index has dropped about 18% from a peak in early October as investors reevaluate risks for the world’s second-largest equity market.
“The retreat of retail investors may be due to changes in market sentiment, the pursuit of short-term gains, and concerns about market risks,” said Yang Ruyi, fund manager at Shanghai Prospect Investment Management. “In the short term, the outflow of funds may lead to a lack of growth momentum in the market and intensify volatility.”
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The outflows marked a sharp reversal from the trend seen a month earlier when retail investors rushed to ride a stimulus-driven equity rebound. Back then, a Chinese exchange-traded fund tracking the tech-heavy ChiNext Index attracted 35 billion yuan of net inflows in just one week, the most among ETFs worldwide.
In signs of reduced risk appetite, the outstanding balance of margin purchase and debt repayment has started dipping from a nine-year high reached on Nov 13.
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Daily trading turnover has also more than halved from the record 3.5 trillion yuan seen last month. Those indicators suggest the market may enter a period of fluctuations, Haitong Securities analysts including Wu Xinkun wrote in a note.
To rekindle retail investor enthusiasm, Beijing may need to offer more clarity on how it plans to support the economy and counter any shocks brought by potential tariffs by Trump.
“The Central Economic Work Conference in December and next year’s two sessions may cause changes in market sentiment and attract additional funds into the market,” said Yang.
Charts: Bloomberg
