For almost three decades, the United Nations has been holding an annual summit on the climate known as COP, which stands for Conference of the Parties. Delegates travel to a chosen city from around the world to try to find ways to prevent or mitigate the worst effects of global warming.
Experience has shown that progress can hinge on a variety of factors — including which country is hosting. For the second year running, COP is being held in one of the most oil and gas dependent countries in the world.
Azerbaijan has little immediate incentive to slash its fossil fuel output and scant experience as a leader in climate policy. So environmental campaigners are sceptical that COP29 — which opened on Nov 11 in Azerbaijan’s capital, Baku — will see major progress in slowing global warming. Two years of wild weather events underscore the challenge, with floods, droughts and heat waves amplified by climate change leaving almost no part of the world untouched.
What’s at stake?
The next decade is a crucial one for climate policy, as countries run out of time to meet emissions targets to keep global warming below catastrophic levels.
Last year was the hottest ever — more than 1°C hotter than the pre-industrial average — and this year is likely to be hotter still. In the Paris Agreement, signed at COP21 in 2016, countries agreed to do their best to limit temperature increases to a threshold of 1.5°C. A recent UN analysis suggests that, instead, temperatures will peak between 2.1°C and 2.8°C above the pre-industrial average.
See also: COP29 deal: Inside the frantic manoeuvre that saved climate talks at a cost
Donald Trump’s victory in the Nov 5 presidential election means the US, the world’s second-biggest polluter after China, is likely to withdraw from global climate agreements and cancel policies encouraging renewable energy.
What’s the focus of this year’s COP talks?
Finance — in particular, the funds that poorer countries need to decarbonise their economies and adapt to climate change. A previous figure of US$100 billion ($133.35 billion) annually was agreed in 2009, but wealthier countries didn’t raise the money until 2022. Developing nations and observers including the UN now put the figure required at US$1 trillion or more. Current contributors including the European Union are asking countries like China, which is still technically classed as a developing economy, to pay a share.
See also: COP29 ends with deal on climate finance after bitter fight
Why the scepticism over host Azerbaijan?
COP’s goal is to cut greenhouse gas emissions, which means slashing fossil fuel production and consumption. At last year’s COP, the headline agreement was that countries would “transition away from fossil fuels”. There’s little apparent incentive for COP host Azerbaijan to do that, as its oil and gas represent 95% of its exports, and its leaders have plans to expand gas production to meet demand in Europe.
Azerbaijan’s human rights record has led some observers to question whether it can host a free and open conference. The government in Baku has jailed critics, protesters and journalists, including some who scrutinised its fossil fuel industry.
What happens at a COP summit?
The main focus is on how to cut carbon emissions and to protect those countries that are hit hardest by climate change. Breakthroughs were achieved in 1997 in Kyoto, Japan, where participants outlined the legal obligations of rich countries to cut their greenhouse gas emissions; and in 2015 in Paris, where a clear goal was set to limit global warming to 2°C — ideally 1.5°C — above pre-industrial levels. (We’re currently at about 1.3°C.)
COPs typically last two weeks. At the start, world leaders come to provide political direction, with those from low-lying islands and poorer countries particularly visible in calling for more to be done. Then they leave, and the second week is dominated by closed-door bargaining among government officials on a final deal. Decisions are reached by consensus.
Who picks the host and what is its role?
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The position rotates each year among the UN’s five regional groupings, with interested countries submitting bids. Governments select the host by consensus. The winner becomes the captain, assessing the level of ambition to aim for that year while keeping everyone on board.
It’s a task that usually starts long before the summit. Before COP26 in Glasgow, for example, British politician Alok Sharma, who served as the meeting’s president, traveled the world sowing the seeds for a pledge to end the use of coal. But the real work — running among delegations to get a deal over the line — starts at the conference.
This year was meant to be the turn of Eastern Europe, and several countries expressed interest, but Russia vetoed members of the EU because of their response to its invasion of Ukraine. Azerbaijan has been embroiled in a long-running conflict with neighboring Armenia, which made it an unlikely host, but it was unexpectedly handed the role after both Armenia and Russia backed its bid at the last minute.
How did COPs originate?
They started after the Earth Summit in Rio de Janeiro in 1992, which brought together 179 countries. That meeting established the framework for COP1, which was held in 1995 in Berlin. The aim each year is to spur countries to action and keep track of progress.
A Brief History of COPs
- Rio de Janeiro 1992 — First international Earth Summit convened
- Berlin 1995 — First COP held; delegates agree to annual meetings
- Kyoto 1997 — Countries agree to emissions cuts
- Copenhagen 2009 — Summit fails to reach expected deal on emissions limits
- Paris 2015 — Landmark agreement to limit global warming; the US quits the deal in 2020 and rejoins the next year
- Glasgow 2021 — Countries agree to ‘phase down’ coal
- Sharm El-Sheikh 2022 — Fund for ‘loss and compensation’ agreed
- Dubai 2023 — Leaders agreed to ‘transition away’ from fossil fuels
- Baku 2024 — COP29 will run from November 11 to 22
When have hosts made a difference either way?
The UK’s work paid off in part when it secured a deal to “phase down” coal in 2021. While that fell short of the “phase out” phrase many wanted, it was still the first time any wording regarding a specific fossil fuel was included.
The following year, Egypt scored a win in creating a “loss and damage” fund to help the poorest nations deal with the impact of climate change. But it was criticised for failing to find consensus on further reducing the use of fossil fuels or otherwise build on previous commitments.
European countries and their allies complained about a hands-off Egyptian presidency that failed to launch early negotiations or foster trust among countries. “These are 197 countries with very different levels of aspiration and capacities,” Wael Aboulmagd, Egypt’s special representative, said in response.
At COP28 in Dubai, which was presided over by United Arab Emirates oil executive Sultan Al-Jaber, an explicit reference to moving away from “fossil fuels” made its way into the final text for the first time — an achievement credited by some attendees to Al Jaber’s influence over oil-rich nations.
Read more about COP29:
- UN biodiversity summit COP16 ends in limbo as countries spar over funding (November)
- COP29 Presidency hosts Pre-COP discussions in Baku (October)
- COP29 Presidency to convene ministerial dialogue on climate finance goal today (September)
- Azerbaijan will fund four members of each Small Island Developing State to attend COP29 (September)
- COP29 to call for sixfold increase in global energy storage (September)
- Azerbaijan proposes US$1 bil Climate Finance Action Fund, replacing planned fossil fuel levy (July)
- COP29 Presidency aims to enhance ambition, enable action (July)
- COP29 Presidency sets out agenda, emphasises upcoming work on New Collective Quantified Goal (June)
- COP29 Presidency hosts climate finance dialogue in Washington (April)
