In 2021, StarHub CC3 launched its multi-year transformation initiative, Dare+, aiming to become the world’s first hybrid multi-cloud telco. During the latest 1HFY2024 results briefing, CEO Nikhil Eapen, who has led the group through this transformation, announced that this goal is expected to be achieved next year.
“By 2025, we would have finished most of the Dare+ expenditure, so we will stop spending money [on the transformation] and move forward to extracting cost savings by harvesting and decommissioning legacy platforms and driving digital efficiencies,” says Eapen.
While analysts are generally optimistic about the group’s transformation and long-term benefits, they have expressed caution regarding its expenditure on the initiative. This caution is particularly focused on last year when a significant portion of the costs was front-loaded to accelerate and enhance the transformation.
This year, as the group enters 2HFY2024, analysts are breathing a sigh of relief. Costs are coming down noticeably, while revenue and profits are seeing an uptick due to Dare+. Earnings for the first-half period came in at $82.1 million, 7.1% higher y-o-y compared to $76.7 million a year ago. This resulted in total revenue remaining flat at $1.1 billion, unchanged from the previous year.
Despite intense competition and the impact on revenue growth from losses linked to D’Crypt — from which the group successfully divested in February — better margins and lower costs have improved the bottomline. Excluding the contribution from D’Crypt, earnings would have been 8.7% higher y-o-y at $83.3 million, while revenue would have been 1.0% higher y-o-y at $1.1 billion.
Service revenue gained 2.4% y-o-y to $939.2 million, lifted by strong growth in the group’s enterprise business. The enterprise segment saw a 10.8% y-o-y increase due to higher revenues from managed and cybersecurity services. Both segments recorded higher project completions, while higher revenues lifted managed services from digital infrastructure solutions and data-centre-related services.
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The group has declared an interim dividend of 3 cents. It has provided dividend guidance of at least 6 cents per share for FY2024 and remains committed to its dividend policy.
Crowded consumer space
The consumer telco market is highly competitive, with the presence of four main telcos and numerous mobile virtual network operators (MVNOs). This intense competition has significantly pressured average revenue per user (ARPU) and industry margins.
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For StarHub, consumer ARPU remained flat across most segments due to intense market conditions in 1HFY2024. Entertainment ARPU saw growth, improving to $46 from $44 due to the cessation of tactical promotions and the successful cross- and up-selling of higher ARPU bundled plans. Broadband ARPU was stable at $34 and postpaid ARPU dropped to $30 from $32 due to growing SIM-only subscribers, partially mitigated by roaming growth.
As the trend of declining margins and ARPU has already become discernible in recent years, there have been occasional talks of industry consolidation, although nothing of note has taken place — except for StarHub’s acquisition of the majority stake in MyRepublic’s Singapore broadband business. The main arena of mobile remains as fragmented as ever.
Recent speculation suggests that mergers and acquisitions may be on the horizon. According to a report by UK-based trade publication TMT Finance on May 8, StarHub and M1 are reportedly revisiting discussions about a potential merger. The report cites five sources familiar with the matter, indicating that these talks are still in the early stages and that a deal will not yet be finalised.
Although Eapen declined to comment on the speculative matter, he reiterated that the company’s efforts have put it in a positive free cash flow position, which makes it a strong candidate for consolidation via acquisition.
“With the new growth platforms we have built and our strong balance for financial flexibility, we are well-positioned to proactively refine our tactical and strategic thrusts to compete effectively and aggressively in our markets, enabling us to drive organic growth in new markets and segments. We are determined to create long-term value for all stakeholders as Singapore’s leading digital platform player,” he adds.
Growing market share
Johan Buse, head of StarHub’s consumer business group, views the telco market as crowded but “not overly crowded”, especially in the broadband sector. StarHub holds a leading position in this space after acquiring MyRepublic’s local broadband business.
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“With more people working from home, they need a WiFi connection that is great and with a carrier that offers service immediately,” says Buse in an interview with The Edge Singapore, adding that this is StarHub’s leg up on the competition in the broadband space. It has also bundled its sales, offering entertainment products and broadband for better value extraction. However, Buse acknowledges that the mobile sector is saturated, quipping: “I wake up every morning and check to see if a new competitor has entered the market.”
Consumers focus on a few criteria when choosing a mobile service: network quality, price, service and brand. With network quality being the top criteria, says Buse, he is not too worried about the competition in the market as StarHub has been awarded “many times” for its superior network in both 5G and voice.
Even though StarHub has its own mobile plans, MVNOs such as the Redone and Giga brands also tap into StarHub’s network. When asked if StarHub is cannibalising its own market, Buse elaborates that the group is selective when bringing on MVNO partners, such that the MVNOs are targeting a different segment that StarHub does not usually cover. For instance, Giga is marketed towards the younger crowd, which is more digitally forward. “They [the MVNOs] have very different offerings compared to what StarHub offers,” adds Buse.
So, how does StarHub increase its market share in this crowded space? Buse explains that the group’s bundling plans have attracted new customers, who switch over to get more value. Additionally, as tech devices become increasingly advanced, many require a SIM card or an eSIM, such as smartwatches and tablets. Buse has also noticed people carrying multiple mobile devices to separate work and personal use.
Analysts optimistic
As StarHub works towards completing its transformation and expanding its telco market share, analysts have grown more optimistic about the stock, noting the increased visibility of near-term catalysts. CGS International has previously kept its “add” recommendation on StarHub with a target price of $1.40, higher than $1.30. “While management did not disclose the exact amount of Dare+ costs incurred year-to-date, we believe investments would be more back-weighted in 2HFY2024. Despite the higher investment costs ahead, we believe StarHub’s margins should only decline slightly h-o-h, as the group realises early benefits from cost cuts and reduction in depreciation expenses,” say analysts Kenneth Tan and Lim Siew Khee.
StarHub shared that its Dare+ transformation progress was on track, with management’s expectations of incurring the bulk of Dare+ investments (90%) by the end of FY2024.
Similarly, DBS Group Research is keeping its “buy” recommendation and $1.54 target price on the stock, noting that the group expects 10% of the $270 million Dare+ costs (55% capex, 45% opex) to be delayed to FY2025, compared to none earlier. StarHub maintained service revenue growth of 1%-3% and service ebitda margin of 22% for FY2024 despite changes to the Dare+ programme.
On the other hand, RHB Bank Singapore is more cautious, maintaining its “neutral” rating and $1.18 target price on StarHub. StarHub’s 1HFY2024 results were broadly in line with the routine weakness in the mobile segment, partially offset by enterprise gains. “While its multi-year transformation investments should start to taper off by the year-end, the timing and magnitude of benefits remain uncertain, in our view,” says the RHB team.
Meanwhile, the RHB team observes that competition remains fierce at the lower end of the mobile market. The shift to SIM-only plans continues to drive postpaid additions, leading to a decline in postpaid ARPU for the second consecutive quarter, while prepaid ARPU has remained steady.
StarHub’s defence has been its Infinity Play value proposition and product bundles with differentiated or superior service quality. A targeted channel approach via MVNOs allows it to minimise the cannibalisation of its base.
Additionally, broadband revenue in 1HFY2024 fell 1.4% on lower premiums, partially offset by better take-up of higher-speed fibre broadband packages (12-fold jump in 10Gbps fibre broadband subs since December 2023). “We believe most fibre broadband customers are on HomeHub bundles which offer good customer retention,” say the research team, noting that the 1HFY2024 entertainment revenue was stable-o-q but down 4% y-o-y from the cessation of tactical promotions, partially mitigated by higher Premier League advertising revenue.
