Global leaders will head to Dubai in less than a week to negotiate the planet’s fate. The 2023 United Nations Climate Change Conference, better known as the 28th Conference of the Parties under the UN Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP28), will run from Nov 30 to Dec 12 in the capital city of the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
This year’s climate summit marks eight years since the Paris Agreement, a legally binding international climate change treaty adopted by 196 parties at COP21 in Paris.
The treaty’s overarching goal is to hold “the increase in the global average temperature to well below 2°C above pre-industrial levels” and pursue efforts “to limit the temperature increase to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels”.
The UN’s Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) science indicates that emissions must peak before 2025 and decline 43% by 2030 to limit global warming to 1.5°C. The IPCC warns that crossing the 1.5°C threshold risks unleashing far more severe impacts.
However, the world’s current trajectory is inconsistent with the 1.5°C goal. At COP28, leaders will have to face the reality of this shortfall with the first-ever global stocktake.
The global stocktake is a process for countries and stakeholders to measure their progress towards the Paris Agreement and identify gaps.
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A series of high-level events surrounding the stocktake is expected during the conference’s first week. These discussions will inform the political outcome, summarising key messages and identifying opportunities to help governments prepare more ambitious national climate action plans — known as nationally determined contributions (NDCs) — due in 2025.
What academics say
The global stocktake has now moved into its “political phase”, notes Melissa Low, a research fellow at the National University of Singapore’s (NUS) Centre for Nature-based Climate Solutions (CNCS).
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There are a range of options on the table, says Low in a media briefing on Nov 15, from simply acknowledging the report to setting more ambitious national targets. “If countries just ‘take note’ of the report, there’s a risk that there will not be a great outcome.”
COP28 will be Low’s 11th time at the annual conference, and Dubai is set to be the largest iteration yet. “We’re expecting 70,000 people over two weeks. Normally, COP [hosts] about 30,000 people, just to give you a sense of the scale of things this year.”
One of the biggest concerns is the relevance of science, says Low. “The global stocktake includes IPCC [reports], and traditionally, IPCC is controversial in the eyes of some countries because it is calling for net-zero by or around 2045, and some countries have not politically accepted that they need to achieve net-zero.”
Loss and damage fund
Governments will also have to develop plans to create a “loss and damage fund”, which was gavelled through in the closing stretches of last year’s COP27. Set to be launched at COP28, the fund is intended to pay poorer countries for the harm caused by climate change.
So far, no country has made a specific financial pledge to the fund. At the Bloomberg New Economy Forum in Singapore on Nov 10, US climate envoy John Kerry said Washington would put “several millions of dollars into the fund at the COP”.
Meanwhile, the European Union’s executive commission said on Nov 13 that it would announce a “substantial financial contribution” to the fund at COP28 but did not state the exact amount.
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The EU’s move signals to high-emitting countries like China and Saudi Arabia that they, too, should help contribute to climate finance, according to an opinion piece by Bloomberg News’ John Ainger and Alberto Nardelli.
Citing the commentary, Danielle Yeow, adjunct senior research fellow at the Centre for International Law, National University of Singapore (NUS), says this is a signal to significant emitters who are not in the developed country group. “No doubt there will be pressure, whether or not this will be overt. Personally, I would expect some pressure behind the scenes, certainly.”
Singapore’s position is still ambiguous — will it be a contributor or claimant from the fund? The republic’s delegate seems to lean towards the latter. In February, Sustainability and Environment Minister Grace Fu said in Parliament that the city-state is still classified as a developing country at international negotiations.
“Singapore belongs to [the] developing countries, and we stand as a potential claimant from this loss and damage fund,” said Fu, leaving the option open. “We have not even had the chance to discuss this internationally, and we have to decide whether to contribute or claim from this fund.”
Yeow is less concerned about Singapore’s role. “What is Singapore’s position? I don’t have any articulation that I can share with you. I think the focus is on the developed countries taking the lead; the focus right now is on the other significant emitters of the emerging economies.”
She expects this to be a “politically-charged issue” at COP28, citing the “common but differentiated responsibilities” principle of international environmental law, or CBDR. The principle was formalised at a UNFCCC summit in 1992, acknowledging that all states have a shared obligation to address environmental destruction but not an equal responsibility for environmental protection.
“Is it voluntary? The US’s position [as a contributor] is voluntary. So, who is expected to give more or [who is] encouraged? That differentiation, consistent with the CBDR principles, will continue to play out,” adds Yeow.
Sustainability leaders chime in
Countries need to accept that overcoming the effects of climate change is a shared responsibility, says Darian McBain, founder and chief executive of Outsourced Chief Sustainability Officer Asia. “You can be a very rich nation, and within your own country, you can do a lot for adaptation and perhaps mitigation, but climate change will impact everybody.”
Everybody has to take responsibility for their portion of the problems, adds McBain, the former chief sustainability officer (CSO) at the Monetary Authority of Singapore. “How you proportion that, of course, becomes very political. But I think the first step is that everybody must be willing to contribute to the solutions.”
Eric Lim, CSO of United Overseas Bank U11 (UOB), hopes for “a lot more clarity” at the global level on the clean energy transition. However, Singapore should “figure out our own business” closer to home.
The republic committed in October 2022 to achieve net-zero emissions by 2050. “How are we charting our path towards net-zero?” says Lim. “We have made a commitment; at a national and sectoral level, what is our game plan to get to it?”
He adds that Asia needs to decarbonise, and Singapore has always been a gateway from West to East. “What are the key capabilities, routes of access and partnerships that we need to set up, such that we continue to stay not only a leader in this space but can truly leverage our unique positioning, skillset [and] capabilities to help decarbonise the region? How can Singapore become bigger than ourselves as we always do and create an outsized positive impact?”
Frederick Teo, CEO of GenZero, sees three priorities for a successful COP. “Firstly, tangible ideas and actions to accelerate transition financing, including through the carbon markets… Secondly, greater clarity on carbon market rules… [And] on a related note, we look forward to progress on Article 6 negotiations.”
Teo expects carbon markets to be a hot topic, with discussions on harmonised standards, rules and interoperability between voluntary and compliant carbon markets. These will be critical to restoring confidence in the carbon markets, he adds.
Singapore has actively facilitated discussions to promote international collaboration, says Teo, who will be heading to Dubai and speaking in two panels at the Singapore Pavilion, the country’s sustainability showcase at COP28. “Multilateral cooperation, partnerships and a free exchange of ideas and solutions will be critical for Singapore and many other smaller, resource-constrained countries to decarbonise. Minister Grace Fu will co-facilitate mitigation negotiations [with her Norwegian counterpart] at COP28, which will be crucial in limiting global temperature rise to 1.5°C.”
Michael Sheren, president and chief strategy officer of Singapore-based green fintech MVGX, expects “a lot of pressure” on the COP28 host from several directions. “During last year’s conference in Egypt, all that came out of it was a pledge of US$100 billion ($134 billion) to support some of the emerging markets.”
Low-carbon economy
The UAE wants to move towards a sustainable, low-carbon economy this year. “But I believe we’re going to need to see some real announcements on the table from them that demonstrate this commitment,” says Sheren.
Regionally, Southeast Asia’s role in negotiations this year is to secure its collective interests. There have been “lots of ideas” thrown around in previous iterations of COP, says R. Raghunathan, CEO of WWF-Singapore.
The trick is to scale these solutions up to a level that starts making an impact on everyone, he adds. “The ideas need to be robust enough to be effective when deployed over a large area, and secondly, there needs to be adequate financing available to make that transition.”
But the region is far from homogenous, with varying economic circumstances and population sizes, among others, says Varad Pande, partner and director at Boston Consulting Group (BCG).
He warns that managing the growth of developing countries in Southeast Asia while reducing emissions will be a very sensitive topic. However, the region can play to its common strengths of being rich in biodiversity, which is its superpower.
“There will be a massive role to bring the voice of Southeast Asia more prominently in the COP process,” Pande says. He adds that this will materialise in the form of announcements of national adaptation plans from the region, stronger country-level campaigns, and pavilions with activities and alliances being announced — all of which would “hopefully” set the stage for national adaptation plans globally.
Pande says the hot topic remains between what the global stocktake is showing and what the ambition will be moving forward. This will make for “good, challenging conversations”.
The only good COP outcome is one where everyone is uncomfortable, says Edmond Rhys Jones, who co-leads BCG’s Center for Climate and Sustainability Policy and Regulation. “That’s the nature of negotiations.”
Follow The Edge Singapore’s coverage of COP28 here.
