Group of 20 (G20) leaders meeting in Brazil next week are set to show unity on climate action and global trade rules, two areas threatened by US President-elect Donald Trump, as talks continue on how to characterize Russia’s war in Ukraine and tensions in the Middle East.
Leaders of the world’s biggest economies will reaffirm “a strong commitment to multilateralism, especially in the light of the progress made under the Paris Agreement” and resolve to “stay united in the pursuit of the accord’s goals,” according to an early draft statement seen by Bloomberg News.
It also called for the World Trade Organization to stay as the “core” of global commerce.
“Recognising that the whole of our efforts will be more powerful than the sum of their parts, we will cooperate and join efforts towards a global mobilisation against climate change,” says the G20 draft statement, which needs all countries to sign off to become official. It could still change — or be discarded altogether — at a summit in Rio starting on Monday.
A section on geopolitics — the most contentious issue since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine in 2022 — was among the last sections to be discussed and remains to be agreed, according to people familiar with the talks, who asked not to be identified to discuss private deliberations. Russia’s Vladimir Putin and German Chancellor Olaf Scholz held a phone call Friday as pressure builds to start talks to end the war.
Trump’s victory in the US election last week is already reshaping global geopolitics as leaders brace for higher tariffs, scepticism of efforts to combat climate change and a shift in American foreign policy priorities.
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US President Joe Biden is representing the US for the final time before handing power to Trump in January.
The G20 remains the premier global forum in which the US and its allies discuss differences on the world’s most pressing issues with China, Russia and other major emerging economies. Host nation Brazil has tried to avoid having Russia’s war against Ukraine and the conflict in the Middle East overshadow the summit, given Moscow’s presence at the gathering and profound differences between participants over how to resolve them.
Going into the summit, several of Ukraine’s allies worried that Brazil and China — whose governments have co-operated on a peace proposal — could issue a joint declaration if an agreement isn’t reached, according to the people. Some European officials have pushed to find a compromise that is consistent with Ukraine’s push for a just peace by looking for language in the UN charter cited in both plans to end the war, the people said.
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Apart from those conflicts, leaders gathering in Peru for the APEC summit this week have repeatedly called to strengthen the rules-based order. The draft communique for the G20 summit marks an early effort to ensure that happens, particularly on trade and climate change: Trump pulled out of the Paris accords the last time he was in the White House, promised to boost fossil fuel production and called climate change a big hoax.
G20 nations will reiterate their pledge to achieve net-zero targets by or around mid-century and “to conclude by the end of 2024 the negotiations of an ambitious, fair and transparent international legally binding instrument on plastic pollution”, the draft communique says.
The G20 was already facing some resistance from Russia, China and Saudi Arabia over the inclusion in the draft statement of a global target for “energy storage in the power sector of 1500GW [gigawatts] by 2030” that would contribute to the goal of tripling renewable energy capacity.
Fighting Hunger, poverty
Brazil has worked to keep most of the focus on its priorities, which also include social inclusion and the launch of a “Global Alliance against Hunger and Poverty” to mobilise “finance and knowledge sharing to support the implementation of country-led, country-owned, large-scale and evidence-based programs aiming at reducing hunger and poverty worldwide”.
Reforming and strengthening the United Nations is another key priority for the Brazilian presidency as part of a “Call to Action on Global Governance Reform” adopted in September. “The challenges the global community faces today can only be addressed through multilateral solutions for a better tomorrow and the strengthening of global governance for both present and future generations,” the draft statement says.
Leaders are set to pledge “to work for a reinvigorated and strengthened multilateral system, rooted in the purposes and principles of the UN Charter and international law, with renewed institutions and a reformed governance that is more representative, effective, transparent and accountable, reflecting the social, economic and political realities of the 21st century,” it adds.
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Similarly, the G20 nations will “emphasise the need to ensure a rules-based, non-discriminatory, fair, open, inclusive, equitable, sustainable and transparent multilateral trading system, with the WTO at its core”, says the draft communique.
Discriminatory policies
They will also “recognise” that certain minerals, materials and technologies are critical for energy transitions and that global markets must be built on reliable and diversified supply chains.“We will avoid discriminatory green economic policies, consistent with WTO rules and multilateral environmental agreements,” the leaders are expected to say in the statement.
To be sure, the global trading system has already been shaken in recent years, following Biden’s programme of green subsidies that the European Union deems to be discriminatory and rising tensions with China over what the US and its allies consider excessive production capacity.
Many nations have also looked to restrict the export of goods that could be used for military purposes and sought to protect their supply of crucial inputs.
Some of those tensions bubbled up during the negotiations over the G20 statement, with China looking to keep strong references to market distorting practices out of the draft, while the US took a similar stance on the need to discourage protectionism, the people familiar with the talks said.
The leaders will also pledge to continue developing principles for safe and secure artificial intelligence, enabling food security through open trade policies and work for a fairer tax system, including to make sure that “ultra-high-net-worth individuals” contribute their fair share, according to the draft statement.
