Taiwan elected Lai Ching-te as president of the global chip hub at the centre of US-China tensions, putting in power a man Beijing has branded an “instigator of war.”
Lai, of the ruling Democratic Progressive Party, sealed victory in the island’s most hotly contested election in decades with 40.1% of the counted vote — the lowest winning percentage since 2000, another three-way race. The main opposition Kuomintang’s Hou Yu-ih trailed in second place, with the Taiwan People’s Party coming last in its first presidential campaign. Both had pledged to restart dialogue with China.
“We are telling the international community that between democracy and authoritarianism, we will stand on the side of democracy,” Lai declared, at a victory rally in Taipei on Saturday night, to rounds of rapturous applause from the crowd.
The current vice president also pledged to keep peace across the Taiwan Strait, a source of military tension for the world’s two-largest economies, while vowing to walk alongside other major democracies — a reference to his party’s ties with Washington.
President Xi Jinping’s government in Beijing called Lai — who considers his island a de facto independent nation — a “troublemaker” and “separatist” in the run up to the election. China views self-ruled Taiwan as a breakaway province that it has vowed to reclaim someday, by force if necessary. President Joe Biden has pledged to defend Taiwan in any invasion.
“The election isn’t really over until Beijing’s response has played out,” said Danny Russel, vice president of the Asia Society Policy Institute. “Having warned that the election marked a choice between ‘war and peace,’ doesn’t the mainland want the voters to face consequences for their ‘wrong’ choice?”
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Taiwan’s security officials have said they don’t expect China to conduct large military exercises around the island immediately after the election but see Beijing ratcheting up pressure before the new president takes office. Current leader Tsai Ing-wen will step down in May, in line with Taiwan’s two-term limits.
China’s Taiwan Affairs Office spokesperson Chen Binhua said the results did not “represent mainstream public opinion on the island” of 23 million people, in the government in Beijing’s first comments after the election that avoided mentioning the winner.
“Nor can it stop the general trend that the motherland will eventually be reunified and will inevitably be reunified,” Chen added, reiterating comments made by Xi during his new year’s address.
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Testing Ties
Lai’s victory speech was broadcast simultaneously in English, as the world’s only Chinese-speaking democracy marked the culmination of a race that’s been closely watched around the globe. Hsiao Bi-khim, Taiwan’s former envoy to the US and Lai’s running mate, stood at his side during his address.
The DPP’s reelection for a record third straight term will test the recent stabilization of ties between Beijing and Washington, after their leaders held talks in California in November. Biden will dispatch a bipartisan delegation of former senior officials to the island after the election, according to a senior US administration official. Beijing opposes nations having official contact with the government in Taipei.
Despite Lai’s vows for policy continuity, Beijing views him with “deep suspicion,” according to Jennifer Welch, chief geoeconomics analyst at Bloomberg Economics. “Higher cross-strait tensions don’t mean a crisis is imminent, but would mean Taipei, Washington, and Beijing have to work harder to avoid one,” she added.
While Lai signalled on Saturday that he would cooperate with China, his party is unlikely to be able to restart talks with Beijing, which have been suspended for the past eight years. The Communist Party demands agreement that Taiwan is part of China as a prerequisite for such dialogue, a red line for the DPP.
Taiwanese voters’ decision to back Lai despite fatigue with his party highlighted that their desire to keep China at arm’s length outweighed mounting frustrations over domestic issues, such as high property prices and slower-than-expected wage growth.
Addressing economic issues, Lai pledged to “vigorously” help further develop the island’s chip industry, which is dominated by Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing Co. The island’s pivotal role in the global supply chain of cutting-edge technology has been dubbed a “silicon shield” against any Chinese invasion.
Overall it was a disappointing evening for the two opposition parties, whose earlier attempt to form an alliance that could have brought them to power, and increased Beijing’s influence, collapsed in a spectacular display of public acrimony. But they could point to some small wins in the legislature.
The TPP increased its legislative seats to eight allowing it to play kingmaker between the two main parties, which both lack an outright majority. Ko Wen-je declared that the results showed the party he founded was now a major opposition force.
The KMT increased its number of seats in the law-making body that decides all government budgets and funding for major arms purchases. Still, Hou apologized for disappointing his voters on Saturday night as he congratulated the DPP for its victory, adding: “I hope they don’t fail the Taiwanese people.”
