The Singapore economy is expected to grow by 2.7% y-o-y in 2Q2024, according to market watchers polled by the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS). The estimate comes after Singapore’s GDP expanded by 2.7% y-o-y in the 1Q2024, slightly above the median forecast of 2.6%.
The MAS survey of professional forecasters for the month of June was released on June 12. The June survey was sent to 26 economists and analysts; the report reflects the views of the 20 who responded.
In 2024, Singapore’s GDP is still expected to expand by 2.4%, unchanged from the previous survey. However, in this survey, market watchers now expect the country’s GDP growth to be led by the finance & insurance sector with a 5.1% y-o-y growth, from 3.4% previously. The previous survey pegged the manufacturing sector as the one leading Singapore’s GDP growth with a 4.0% y-o-y growth. In this survey, the manufacturing sector is now expected to expand by 1.6% y-o-y.
Expectations for Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) for the year dipped to 4.0% from 6.0%.
According to the mean probability distribution, the Singapore economy is most likely to grow by 2.0% to 2.4% this year, with an average probability of 35%. This is followed closely by the 2.5% to 2.9% forecast range, with a probability of 30%. In the previous survey, the respondents similarly assigned the highest probability to growth outturns of between 2.0% to 2.4%.
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In the 2Q2024, market watchers expect CPI-All items (headline inflation) and Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) core inflation to come in at 2.8% and 3.0% respectively. This comes after headline inflation stood at 3.0% in the 1Q2024, lower than the respondents’ forecast of 3.6% in the previous survey. Core inflation for the first quarter also stood slightly lower than forecasted at 3.3% compared to the estimate of 3.4% previously.
In 2024, the median forecast for headline inflation is 2.8%, down from 3.1% in the March survey. The median forecast for core inflation remains unchanged at 3.0%.
The respondents assigned the highest probability to the 2.5% to 2.9% range for headline inflation compared to 3.0% to 3.4% in the March survey. For core inflation, the highest probability was assigned to the 3.0% to 3.4% range, compared to previous survey where the highest probabilities were almost equally spread between the probability ranges of 2.5 to 2.9% and 3.0 to 3.4%.
See also: Singapore's economy faces up to a difficult year
The unemployment rate is expected to be at 2.1% as at the end of 2024.
2025 estimates
In 2025, the respondents expect Singapore’s GDP to expand by 2.5% y-o-y. Their forecasts of the most likely outcome for growth fall between 2.5% and 2.9%, unchanged from the previous survey. The average probability assigned to the range is 34%, up slightly from 33% previously.
Singapore’s headline and core inflation are expected to be at 2.1% and 2.0% respectively in 2025. The respondents assigned the highest probability to the 2.0% to 2.4% range for both readings.
Outlook
Looking ahead, spillovers from geopolitical tensions were the most cited downside risks to the domestic outlook, while more robust growth from China were the most frequently cited upside risk to Singapore’s outlook.
Most of the respondents polled say they do not expect changes to the slope, width and level of the Singapore dollar nominal effective exchange rate (S$NEER) policy band in the upcoming July and October reviews.
About 11% of respondents anticipate a reduction in the slope of the policy band in the July review, while 6% of the respondents expect to see the same in October. About 6% of respondents predicted a lowering of the level at which the S$NEER policy band is centred in the October review.
