Singapore’s FY2024 growth forecast for total merchandise trade and non-oil domestic exports (NODX) have narrowed to around 5% and 1% respectively, following weaker-than-expected 3Q2024 growth, due to volatile pharmaceuticals as well as ships and boats segments.
On a y-o-y basis, NODX grew by 9.2%, after the 6.5% decrease in the previous quarter. Electronics grew faster in 3Q2024, marking the second consecutive quarter of growth, while non-electronics rebounded after two quarters of declines.
Domestic exports of electronic products rose by 17% y-o-y in 3Q2024. Integrated circuits, disk media products and personal computers grew by 23.7%, 117.0% and 52.1% y-o-y respectively, contributing the most to the growth in electronic NODX.
Domestic exports of non-electronic products grew by 7% y-o-y. The largest contributors were specialised machinery (up 18.8% y-o-y), non-monetary gold (up 43.9% y-o-y) and food preparations (up 20.6% y-o-y)
NODX to the top markets rose in 3Q2024. The biggest contributors were Malaysia (up 30.7% y-o-y), China (up 12.7% y-o-y) and the US (up 6% y-o-y).
On a y-o-y basis, NORX rose by 6.6% in 3Q2024, extending the 11.8% expansion in the previous quarter. The growth in NORX can be attributed to higher shipments of both electronic and non-electronic re-exports.
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Looking ahead, volatile segments such as pharmaceuticals as well as ships and boats could continue to weigh on 4Q2024 performance. A net weighted balance of 8% of firms in the pharmaceuticals segment forecast new export orders for 4Q2024, down from the net weighted balance of 56% in the previous quarter.
Meanwhile, electronic NODX performance had also moderated in September and October compared to the double-digit growth in July (16.7%) and August (35.1%).
For 2025, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected that global economic activity will grow by 3.2%. Most of Singapore’s key trade partners, including China, the US, the EU and Asean-5 are projected to grow. Similarly, on the trade front, the World Trade Organization expects global merchandise trade to grow by 3% in 2025, faster than the 2.7% in 2024.
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Singapore’s NODX is expected to grow by 1% to 3% in 2025. While the external environment is generally supportive of growth, uncertainties in the global economy such as a more challenging and competitive trade environment could weigh on global trade and growth.
