Concerts, an activity put into the deep freeze during the pandemic years, is now back with a vengeance. Since late last year, a growing list of acts have joined the likes of Guns N Roses and Jay Chou (see Back to ‘Live’ in Issue 1053, Sept 19, 2022) as demand for such entertainment grows.
On concert nights, the reservation list at Thai Village at Indoor Stadium explodes in double-quick time. One recent evening, the restaurant emptied by a quarter to eight as diners turned their attention from sharks’ fin soup to cheering for Wakin Chau. “The battle is over,” a relieved waitress was heard telling a colleague.
The latest act to make a splash is genre-spanning Taylor Swift. Besides Japan, her only other Asian leg of The Eras Tour is here in Singapore. Right after the initial news of a three-night sellout, three more nights were added — only to be promptly snapped up.
The combined economic might of some 200,000 “Swifties” manifesting this coming March prompted headlines over the weekend such as “A star boost for the Singapore economy” and “Gold rush”. One can imagine tourism officials smacking their lips and hospitality operators licking their chops. Meanwhile, promoter Marina Bay Sands promises exclusive experiences for its high-value guests while private bankers are swamped with calls from clients for tickets.
Even the Community Chest, which I chair, is inundated with requests each time these big-name acts come by. I can only attribute this to our partnership with Singapore-listed GHY Culture & Media last December when we sold $50,000 per pair of Cat 1 tickets that came with a backstage photo opportunity with Jay Chou.
More recently, we found a generous corporate partner that helped us raise $10,000 from each VIP Suite pass for Black Pink at the National Stadium last month. I am glad there is no shortage of donors who are keen to do good and enjoy themselves at the same time. I wish we had more organisers or partners happy to release more such charitable assets for the benefit of the 200 critical needs programmes we support.
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That said, wearing my old Singapore Exchange S68 (SGX) hat, we can probably help determine — through price discovery — the popularity of the various artists by the number of requests we get and the potential prices even a mosh pit ticket can sell for!
Even as the frenzy among the Swifties rages on, Coldplay’s Music of the Spheres this November was met by long lines across various Singapore Post outlets island-wide. The sight reminds us old enough of the long queues at ATMs for IPOs in the bustling 90s just before the Asian Financial Crisis hit.
Back then, an IPO, no matter what size, was a chance to snag a stag, thanks to the invariable oversubscription. The prospects of returns were so good that some even took up margin financing so that they can secure a better chance for a (still small) allocation at a higher application size bracket.
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When “God of Songs” Jacky Cheung sold out his first six concerts, the promoters, UnUsuaL, exercised the “greenshoe” option and sold three more nights — and tickets were all gone faster than he could finish singing The Goodbye Kiss. To meet insatiable demand, yet another two nights were added, bringing the total to a local record of 11.
The public clamouring contrasts with the muted reception investment bankers across the world are getting for IPOs. Some of the recent micro-cap issues are practically initial private placements — given that they didn’t bother with a public tranche at all.
Many veterans, holding on to the nostalgia of Creative Technology and C76 Venture Corp, lament about what is required to bring back the excitement into local IPOs and help our entrepreneurs here find growth capital. The ideas are aplenty, but unfortunately, the overseas sirens seducing local investment dollars are louder. The tourism-related spending here by concertgoers is much like private and institutional wealth, safely parked in stocks of Singapore banks that are valued at a premium to their Hong Kong counterparts.
The irony is that given the strength of Singapore’s domestic capital, which includes pension capital in CPF, our sovereign wealth and investors ourselves often stray overseas, as this column has pointed out before.
Which tunes to play
This market has done it before. mm2 Asia 1B0 , under executive chairman Melvin Ang, started life as a $50 million market cap on the Catalist before upgrading to the mainboard as it grew. With growth capital from its IPO, mm2 spun out UnUsUaL, its concert organising unit for its separate listing. Subsequently, Vividthree Holdings OMK , which focuses on effects and production, was also spun out. The combined market value of these three companies at one point reached $1 billion before the acquisition of Cathay’s cinemas and the pandemic weighed on its business and balance sheet.
With the pandemic over and demand for content as strong as ever, mm2 has survived its darkest hour and is now in full production, so to speak. If it has a taker for its physical assets (primarily the Cathay cinemas), cash generated through its UnUsUaL concerts, and potential new business to revitalise Vividthree, this makes a likely turnaround plus growth story. Likewise, GHY’s content business has navigated Covid respectably, pre-selling more productions and poised to reap the alpha from organising Jay Chou concerts across the region.
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That said, the “tourism mania” that brings in mass as well as high-value tourism to Singapore as we are now a key node in the global tour for gigs big and small is exciting. From the West, we have had U2 to Paul Anka — something for different age groups. The list of names that have come or are coming includes Joey Yung from Hong Kong, Rain from Korea and A-Mei from Taiwan.
This means a long tail of overlooked listed companies in retail, hospitality and F&B deserves another glance. Genting Singapore G13 , the larger and more liquid of this lot, has pulled back to the lows of 94 cents from its recent run above $1.18. This stock looks interesting if Resorts World Sentosa too could pull in more gigs into its premises.
After paying lots for official — or even worse — scalped tickets, will it be the mid-range F&B groups that get the benefit or the higher-end Tung Lok restaurants or do we just take comfort in the local retail REITs? Will the Sheratons, Frasers or Shangri-Las that could get a Singapore boost alongside a global revival in the hospitality sector?
Many of these hidden gems trade well within their net asset values and provide a reasonable dividend. Shangri-La Asia S07 , for example, has an NAV of HK$23.48 ($4.05) as at Dec 31, 2022 but trades at around HK$6. Time to do more homework.
We can also fuel much more of our own capital market growth if we pay some attention to new issues here and stand by our trading screens at market open since some of us are now adept at electronic queuing for when tickets are released for gigs. There are rumoured regional IPOs from Asean or secondary listings now finding their way to Singapore capital markets directly or even through RTOs announced.
Admittedly, with self-serving interest, but should Goldman Sachs’ prediction be correct that the IPO market globally is about to restart in the second half of the year, perhaps it is time to pay some attention in the day to stocks after enjoying the evening at the gigs. One might even get a decent capital return or dividend payout to afford the rising price of concert tickets.
Jobs wanted, not gigs
Back in the West, the puzzle of the sizzling US job market, which has caused the Fed to signal potentially further rate hikes after its June pause, needs a bit of unravelling. Jerome Powell’s commitment to be data-driven for interest rate policy makes each monthly new jobs and unemployment data release a potential banana skin for macro traders betting on interest rates derivatives to growth stocks.
The “incredibly tight” labour market with historic-low US unemployment rates, still rising hourly wages (though at a slower pace than 2022) and impressive new job creation numbers, seem at odds with the non-stop list of massive job cuts. Those wielding the axe started from Big Tech: Amazon, Google, Meta and Microsoft. This has extended to banks (JP Morgan and Goldman Sachs) and professional services and growth tech (Zoom, Spotify).
Close to home, Grab is culling 1,000 or 11% of its headcount. Fellow homegrown internet play Sea had acted more decisively earlier, receiving positive reactions to both its earnings and share price. Both of these companies should contemplate secondary listings in Singapore so that Asian investors can trade during the day and watch the concerts at night.
A private equity investor, who like me, is a tad pessimistic about the US economy, has looked more deeply into the data: On one hand, high-value jobs are being shed as companies cut costs or replace permanent jobs with contracts. On the other hand, jobs are created in the gig economy. Post-Covid, with rising inflation and a slowdown of immigration from Trump-era policies, the US labour market is growing at the gig end of the workforce which is low-quality employment, with limited benefits.
This trend, which is also similar in other Western economies, could lead to reduced expenditure, fanning further recessionary fears. For me, the more concerning aspect is that the burden of the short and long-term social costs of such employment structures is often laid on the public purse, which many Western governments can ill afford.
The choice appears between “structural rigidity” in Europe, with higher unemployment but still a lot of immigrants trying to reach the continent in leaky boats, or a more “flexible” one with limited corporate participation in employee support. This is potentially what the UK is facing with wage push inflation, an unintended and not admitted consequence of Brexit. Unfortunately, drugs and related crime are growing from San Francisco, New York and Vancouver to London, while the data on job growth still seems healthy.
Irrespective of whether we have a soft landing or a deeper recession in the US (which is not reflected in its headline equity index returns led by the so-called Magnificent Seven stocks this year), these societies do look socially unsustainable, even if they have “woke-n” up.
I am personally glad that in Singapore, the government is still focused on creating more higher value jobs and skills, even as we belatedly recognise the value of many essential ones and raised their wages, as one of our Covid lessons for social cohesion. This is why I will still keep my portfolio more at and closer to home and I am okay if more gigs (the concert type) show up here, bringing more to the local economy both through tourism receipts as well as making us an even more attractive and fun global city. We just need to translate that to our capital market.
Chew Sutat retired from Singapore Exchange after 14 years as a member of its executive management team. During his watch, the exchange transformed from an Asian gateway into a global multi-asset exchange, and he was awarded FOW’s lifetime achievement award. He serves as chairman of the Community Chest Singapore
