Goldman Sachs Group and Morgan Stanley shares are showing an “unattractive risk reward profile” in the wake of the recent bank rally, HSBC analysts said, adding that investors should be wary of arguments that an investment banking “supercycle” will drives shares much higher.
The analysts lead by Saul Martinez said that while investment banking fees likely will increase, their estimates for Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley already factor in around a 30% increase from 2024 levels. “We think market expectations are much higher than they have been, leaving room for disappointment,” Martinez said in a note, downgrading both banks to hold from outperform.
Donald Trump’s victory in the US presidential elections saw bank stocks rip as investors expect Trump’s policies, including tax cuts and lighter regulation, to drive economic growth and boost bank stocks.
Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs are both up 13% and 14% respectively since Nov 6, when the KBW Bank Index surged almost 10% in the day after the election.
While some analysts are bullish, including Wells Fargo & Co.’s Mike Mayo, who called the catalyst a “watershed moment” and who sees the chance for a “supercycle” in capital markets, Martinez is hardly alone in his hesitancy.
Recently, Oppenheimer analysts downgraded JPMorgan Chase & Co. to perform from outperform following the rally, warning that the bank guided to lower net interest income.
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The index, which tracks the top 34 US banks, including names like Citigroup, JPMorgan Chase & Co., Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley, is on track for its best year since 1997. Having maintained its gains following the election, the index is expected to soon set a new record high.
Despite the downgrades, Martinez in his note Monday did clarify that he is even more positive today on fundamental outlooks than before and raises his earnings per share estimates for both banks to incorporate higher investment banking and asset and wealth management fees and “much higher buybacks”.
