Singapore’s non-oil domestic exports (NODX) rose 9.0% y-o-y in the 3Q2021, following the 10.1% rise in the 2Q2021, according to figures released by Enterprise Singapore (ESG) on Nov 24.
The growth was attributable to increases seen in electronic and non-electronic NODX during the period.
Domestic exports of electronic products grew by 15.3% y-o-y in 3Q2021, led by growth in integrated circuits (ICs), personal computers (PCs), as well as diodes and transistors. During the quarter, ICs, PCs and diodes and transistors expanded by 12.8%, 46.3% and 29.4% respectively.
Domestic exports of non-electronic products rose by 7.1% y-o-y in 3Q2021, led by growth in specialized machinery, petrochemicals and pharmaceuticals with y-o-y increases of 52.8%, 43.8% and 20.4% respectively.
NODX to Singapore’s top 10 markets grew as a whole, although exports to the US and EU27 declined. China, Taiwan and South Korea were the biggest contributors to NODX growth at 17.6%, 39.7% and 24.3% respectively.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, NODX rose 0.8% in 3Q2021, after the 3.9% q-o-q decline in the 2Q2021.
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Electronic NODX fell by 3.1% q-o-q, while non-electronic NODX rose by 2.0% q-o-q.
Non-oil re-exports (NORX) grew by 16.4% y-o-y during the quarter, following the 26.6% y-o-y expansion in 2Q2021.
The y-o-y increase was mainly due to the higher shipments of electronics. Non-electronics NORX also saw increases y-o-y.
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Electronic NORX was up by 22.5% y-o-y in 3Q2021 mainly contributed by higher re-exports of ICs, diodes and transistors and other computer peripherals at 33.2%, 9.1% and 34.1% respectively.
Non-electronic grew by 9.3% y-o-y in 3Q2021, mainly due to the higher re-exports of specialized machinery and nickel and aluminum at 58.1% and 450.2% respectively.
NORX to Singapore’s top 10 markets rose on the whole, with South Korea being the only exception. The biggest contributors to the NORX increase were Hong Kong, China and Taiwan at 33.5%, 30.3% and 24.1% respectively.
On a q-o-q basis, NORX fell by 2.2%, following the previous quarter’s 2.8% increase.
Electronic NORX grew by 1.3% q-o-q, while non-electronic NORX fell 6.4% q-o-q.
Total non-oil exports (NOX) – which includes NODX and NORX – expanded 13.6% y-o-y in 3Q2021, extending the 19.9% y-o-y growth seen in the 2Q2021.
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On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, NOX fell by 1.1% in 3Q2021 following the 0.2% rise in 2Q2021.
Oil domestic exports rose by 49.2% y-o-y in 3Q2021, although the figure declined by 6.5% in volume terms.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, oil domestic exports grew by 1.3% in the 3Q2021.
Oil re-exports rose 9.3% y-o-y in 3Q2021, although the figure contracted by 33.3% in volume terms.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, oil re-exports expanded by 14.3%.
Total merchandise trade rose by 19.1% y-o-y in the 3Q2021, following the 27.3% y-o-y growth seen in 2Q2021.
The growth was attributable to increases in non-oil and oil trade.
Oil trade expanded by 50.0% y-o-y in 3Q2021 amid higher oil prices, while non-oil trade grew by 14.6% y-o-y.
On a q-o-q seasonally adjusted basis, total merchandise trade fell by 0.2%. Oil trade rose 1.6% q-o-q, while non-oil trade fell 0.5% q-o-q.
Singapore’s total services trade, which consists of services exports and imports, grew by 7.5% y-o-y to $130 billion in 3Q2021, following the 12.3% expansion in 2Q2021.
This was due to increases in services exports and imports at 6.7% y-o-y and 8.3% y-o-y respectively.
The growth in services exports is due to an increase in other business services, financial services and maintenance and repair services at 7.2%, 8.2% and 28.1% y-o-y respectively.
Outlook
Both total merchandise trade and NODX logged in better-than-expected increases in the 3Q2021, says ESG.
“Electronics and related specialised machinery exports had supported NODX growth and is expected to continue amid robust global semiconductor demand, while petrochemicals NODX grew for the 3rd quarter straight y-o-y after declining amid a global downcycle in 2019 and 2020,” reads the statement.
The pace of growth is expected to moderate in 2022 owing to the high base in 2021.
Similarly, the growth pace of oil trade in 2022 may ease from that in 2021. The Energy Information Administration (EIA) expects oil prices in 2022 to average US$72 per barrel, similar to its upgraded oil price forecast in 2021.
Global oil stocks are forecasted to begin building in 2022, alongside slowing growth in global oil demand.
In 2022, the International Monetary Fund (IMF) has projected the global economy to grow at 4.9%, easing from the 5.9% forecast in 2021. China, the US and Eurozone, which are Singapore’s key trade partners, were also projected to see their growth ease from 2021’s pace.
Meanwhile, ASEAN-5 and Japan were forecasted to grow faster in 2022 amid their disrupted recovery in 2021.
The World Trade Organisation (WTO) forecasted global merchandise trade to grow by 10.8% in 2021 and slow to 4.7% in 2022. This may be attributable to supply issues such as semiconductor shortages and port backlogs.
As such, ESG has adjusted its 2021 growth projections upwards.
Total merchandise trade is expected to range from +17.0% to +17.5%, while NODX is estimated to stand between +9.5% to +10.0%.
For 2022, growth projections are at 0.0% to +2.0% for both total merchandise trade and NODX.
Photo: Bloomberg
